Challenge
A large multinational operating across Europe was developing its ESG strategy to become future‑proof and compliant with upcoming regulations. Climate change was an essential pillar of this strategy. However, the organization faced a fundamental problem: it was impossible to define a credible, long‑term ESG strategy without first understanding how different climate futures could impact the business, its operations, its value chain and its financial performance.
The company’s structure added an additional layer of complexity. With numerous semi‑autonomous business units, each exposed to different regional regulations, stakeholder expectations and environmental risks, the organization needed a unified yet flexible approach. Leadership required clarity on which climate‑related forces could shape their future, which uncertainties were most significant and how these dynamics might translate into concrete risks and opportunities for each business unit.
Scenario planning offered the answer, but the organization needed expert guidance to turn complexity into strategic direction.
Approach
We guided the climate‑scenario process from insight generation to strategic implications.
We began by aggregating the climate‑related risks and opportunities identified during the company’s double materiality assessment, which provided a solid foundation for understanding where climate exposure and potential value creation were most concentrated.
Next, we conducted targeted research into climate trends, analysing political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental forces through a detailed PESTLE assessment. These forces were then validated in collaboration with all business units to ensure that insights reflected both external realities and internal experience.
To identify the most critical uncertainties for the future, we facilitated sessions with each business unit to prioritize the driving forces. Together, we assessed the impact and uncertainty of each force and plotted them on an impact‑uncertainty matrix. This revealed which variables were stable and predictable, and which would shape fundamentally different futures depending on how they unfolded.
Using these prioritized uncertainties, we developed multiple future scenarios. For each scenario, we created rich narratives that described how the world might look, how markets and regulations could evolve and what this would mean for the organization’s business model and operational reality.
Finally, we collaborated with the business units to explore the implications of each scenario. We identified risks, opportunities and potential strategic responses and outlined the decisions and capabilities the company would need to prepare for. This resulted in a clear next‑step plan for integrating climate resilience into the ESG strategy.
Impact
With climate‑scenario planning incorporated into the process, the company is now developing an ESG strategy that is not only compliant, but also robust under multiple potential futures. The organization can anticipate risks more effectively, invest in the right capabilities and proactively shape opportunities that arise from climate‑related transitions.
The result is a future‑oriented ESG strategy built on strategic foresight, business relevance and resilience, enabling the company to act with confidence in a world shaped increasingly by climate dynamics.